Open Journal Systems

Research on Influences of Employment in Manufacturing Industry on that in the Service Industry Based on Bayes Model

Sun Yue(School of mathematics and statistics, Yunnan University)

Abstract

Using the data of 285 prefectural and the above-level cities from 2004 to 2016, this thesis reveals the impact of employment in China's urban manufacturing industry on the employment of service industries with the Bayesian model. Under the Bayesian framework, partial linear semi-parametric model is proposed.  The nonlinear functions are fitted by using truncation base cardinal spline and considering the random error terms of mixed normal fitting models. The results show that: employment in the urban manufacturing industry in China has significant influence on the employment in the service industry. When the number of employees in the manufacturing industry changes from 0 to 650,000, the manufacturing industry has less influence. When the number of the employees in the manufacturing industry changes from 650,000 to 900,000, the employees of the service industry will dramatically increase. When the number of the employees in the manufacturing industry is more than 900,000, the employees in the service industry will be prone to stable growth.

Keywords

Manufacturing industry; Service industry; Bayesian estimation; Spline; Mixed normal

Full Text:

PDF

References

Albert, J. Bayesian Computation with R (2nd Ed) Springer[M], New York, 2009.

Gelman, A. Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models[J]. Bayesian Analysis 2006(6):515-533.

Good, I.J. Probability and the Weighing of Evidence[M]. Charles Griffin, London, 1950.

Hastings W K. Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their application[J]. Biometrika,1970: 97-109

Ishwaran H, Zarepour M. Markov chain Monte Carlo in approximate Dirichlet and beta two-parameter process hierarchical models[J]. Biometrika, 2000(2),371-390

Ohlssen D I, Sharples L D, Spiegelhalter D J. Flexible random-effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications to institutional comparisons[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 2007(9):2088-2112.

Desheng Lai, Man Gao. The Creation of Local Employment: Multiplier Effect of Manufacturing Employment on Service Employment[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2017(04):28-40. (in Chinese)

Yifei Li, Jing Li, Ming Xu. The Interactive Multiplier and Spatial Spillover between Manufacturing Employment and Service Employment[J]. Finance Trade Economics, 2017(04):115-129. (in Chinese)

Yu Li. Employment multiplier effect of manufacturing sector on local service sector: Empirical research based on the provincial panel data[D].2016. (in Chinese)



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26549/jfr.v2i3.1173

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright © 2018 Yue Sun Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
  • :+65-62233778 QQ:2249355960 :contact@s-p.sg