Open Journal Systems

Pricing the Extreme Mortality Bonds Based on the Double Exponential Jump Diffusion Model

Shiqing Xie(Department of Finance, School of Economics, Peking University)
Qin Shang(School of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology)

Abstract

Extreme mortality bonds (EMBs), which can transfer the extreme mortality risks confronted by life insurance companies into the capital market, refer to the bonds whose nominal values or coupons are associated with mortality index. This paper first provides the expected value of mortality index based on the double exponential jump diffusion (DEJD) model under the risk-neutral measure; then derives the pricing models of the EMBs with principal reimbursement non-cumulative and cumulative threshold respectively; finally simulates the bond prices and conducts a parameter sensitivity analysis. This paper finds that the jump and direction characteristics of mortality index have significant impacts on the accuracy of the EMB pricing.

Keywords

Extreme Mortality Bonds; Reimbursement Mechanisms; Double Exponential Jump Diffusion Distribution; Risk-neutral Pricing

Full Text:

PDF

References

Blake, D., A.J.G. Cairns, and K. Dowd, 2006a, Living with Mortality: Longevity Bonds and Other Mortality-linked Securities, British Actuarial Journal, 12(1): 153-197.

Blake, D., A.J. Cairns, K. Dowd, 2006b, A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(4): 687-718.

Blake, D., A.J. Cairns, K. Dowd, 2006c, Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk, ASTIN Bulletin, 36:79-120.

Cairns, A., D. Blake and K. Dowd, 2006, Pricing Death: Frameworks for Securitization of Mortality Risk, ASTIN Bulletin, 36 (1):79-120.

Chen, H., and S. H. Cox, 2009, Modeling Mortality with Jumps: Application to Mortality Securitization, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3): 727-751.

Chen, H., and J. D. Cummins, 2010, Longevity Bond Premiums: the Extreme Value Approach and Risk Cubic Pricing, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 46(1): 150-161.

Cox, S. H., Y. Lin, and S. S. Wang. 2006. Multivariate Exponential Tilting and Pricing Implications for Mortality Securitization, Journal of Risk and Insurance. 73(4): 719-736.

Dahl, M., 2004, Stochastic Mortality in Life Insurance: Market Reserves and Mortality-Linked Insurance Contracts, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 35: 113-136.

Deng, Y. L., Brockett, and R. D. MacMinn, 2012, Longevity/Mortality Risk Modeling and Securities Pricing. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 79: 697–721.

Dowd, K., D. Blake, A. J. G. Cairns and P. Dawson, 2006, “Survivor Swaps”. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73, 1-17.

Klein, R., 2006, Mortality Catastrophe Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Tool, Society of Actuaries Newspaper, (57).

Kou, S. G. and H. Wang, 2003, First Passage Times of a Jump Diffusion Process, Applied Probability Trust, 35, 504-531.

Kou, S. G. and H. Wang, 2004, Option Pricing under a Double Exponential Jump Diffusion Model, Management Science, 50(9): 1178-1192.

Lane, M. N., 2000, Pricing Risk Transfer Transactions, ASTIN Bulletin, 30(2): 259-293.

Lee, R.D. and L. R. Carter, 1992, Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87: 659-675.

Lin, Y. and S. Cox, 2005, Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 72: 227–252.

Lin, Y. and S. H. Cox, 2008, Securitization of Catastrophe Mortality Risks, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42:628-637.

Lin, Yijia, Sheen Liu and Jifeng Yu, 2013, Pricing Mortality Securities with Correlated Mortality Indices. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 80(4), 921-948.

Milevsky, M. A. and S. D. Promislow, 2001, Mortality Derivatives and the Option to Annuitize, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 29: 299.318.

Wang, S.. 2000, A Class of Distortion Operations for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 67(1): 15–36.

Wang, S., 2002, A Universal Framework for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks, ASTIN Bulletin, 32(2): 213-234.



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26549/jfr.v8i1.18638

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright © 2024 Shiqing XIE Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
  • :+65-62233778 QQ:2249355960 :contact@s-p.sg