金融衍生工具在中非跨国基础设施投资风险管理中的应用研究——以肯尼亚蒙内铁路为例

OSSODONGARTI DAVID(对外经济贸易大学，中国)

摘要

“一带一路”倡议推进过程中，中非基础设施投资合作逐渐成为带动非洲经济一体化发展的重要力量，但这一合作始终面临汇率波动、利率震荡等突出金融风险。本文立足风险对冲理论与项目融资理论，结合中非跨国基建投资的实际场景，搭建了一套适配性较强的金融衍生工具风险管理框架，并选取肯尼亚蒙内铁路项目开展实证分析。研究过程中，先系统梳理金融衍生工具的核心理论体系，结合中非基建投资的宏观环境与项目自身特点，厘清汇率、利率两类核心金融风险的敞口属性与形成逻辑；再依托蒙内铁路的融资结构与运营数据，设计货币互换与利率互换组合对冲方案，通过蒙特卡洛模拟与敏感性分析，量化检验该方案对项目现金流稳定性、净现值（NPV）及内部收益率（IRR）的实际影响。研究发现，金融衍生工具与中非基建投资的风险特征具有良好适配性，所设计的组合对冲策略可使项目年度现金流标准差降低42.3%，净现值从-3.2亿美元转为5.7亿美元，大幅提升了项目的财务可行性与抗风险水平。针对非洲衍生品市场发展滞后、中非跨境监管协同不足等现实问题，本文从市场培育、监管协同、能力建设、合作机制四个维度提出针对性政策建议。本研究尝试将金融工程理论与中非基建投资实践相结合，为跨国基建项目的金融风险管理提供可操作的量化方案，也为深化中非投融资合作提供理论参考与实践思路。

关键词

金融衍生工具；中非基础设施投资；风险管理；货币互换；利率互换；蒙内铁路；蒙特卡洛模拟

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12345/cjygl.v10i1.35769