The Role of Social Change Factors in the Criminal Saturation Law

Shiqing Xie(Department of Finance, School of Economics, Peking University)
Xiu Yi(School of Economics, Peking University)

Abstract

In the crime saturation law,the crime rate of a country depends on the specific time and space conditions of the country, and its distribution and size are limited to the "saturation" of social conditions. Therefore, the process of social change is the process of the criminial rate change. First, based on the regression analysis of the longitudinal crime rate data and relevant social development data in China from 1981 to 2015, this paper searches for the cointegration relationship between the variable sequences. Second, by the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test, this paper finds the potential structural breakpoints within the sample interval. Finally, based on the structural breakpoints, this paper compares and analyzes the regression results between the sub regions, the sub intervals and overall sample intervals. The study finds that the increase of per capita GDP level, the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, the decline of social education level and the increase of unemployment rate all contribute to the growth of crime rate. China’s relevant departments should implement measures to maintain stability in the period of rapid economic growth, pay attention to social equity problems, increase investment in education, and reduce social unemployment rate.

Keywords

Crime Saturation Rule; Social Change; Cointegration Model; Quandt-Andrews Segmentation Point Test

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26549/mmpp.v6i2.18642