DEB-TACE 联合小分子靶向药治疗不可切除肝癌预后预测模型构建与验证

砚亮 王(郑州大学附属洛阳中心医院介入科，中国;)
威 宋(郑州大学附属洛阳中心医院介入科，中国;)
明 潘(郑州大学附属洛阳中心医院介入科，中国;)
发中 李(郑州大学附属洛阳中心医院介入科，中国;)
君 崔(河南省洛阳市第五人民医院影像科，中国;)

摘要

目的：探讨药物洗脱微球经动脉化疗栓塞（DEB-TACE）联合小分子靶向药物治疗不可切除肝癌患者的预后并构建其风险预测模型。方法：回顾性分析经我院收治的DEB-TACE联合小分子靶向药物治疗的385例不可切除肝癌患者基本资料及生存期。分析患者生存率，采用Cox比例风险回归模型筛选出独立影响预后的风险因素，并构建列线图模型。使用C指数、ROC曲线和校准曲线在训练集和验证集中对模型的效能进行评价。决策曲线分析评估模型的临床潜在应用价值。结果：经Cox多因素回归分析,将白蛋白-胆红素（ALBI）评分、血管侵犯等5个因素作为影响预后的独立因素纳入列线图。通过列线图、受试者工作特征曲线下面积、决策曲线分析显示本模型有较大的预测能力及净获益区间，有助于临床决策。结论：该模型能较准确地预测DEB-TACE联合小分子靶向药治疗不可切除肝癌患者的预后。

关键词

肝癌；肝动脉化疗栓塞术；临床疗效；预测模型；列线图

参考

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12345/yzlcyxzz.v7i8.20496