Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on Food Security: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Propensity Score Matching and Difference in Difference

Zhixing Chen(William A. Shine - Great Neck South High School)
Jitong Yao(Drean Get Education Inc.)

Abstract

This paper explores the significant impact of the Ukraine conflict on local food security, employing a robust methodological framework that integrates Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, supplemented by placebo tests and the synthetic control method. By examining panel data from 2014 to 2022, the study reveals a causal relationship between the conflict and a notable deterioration in Ukraine's food security index. The conflict, characterized by direct damages to agricultural production and infrastructure, alongside indirect economic and social disruptions, has led to a substantial decline in food security. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of how war affects food security and provides actionable insights for policy formulation and response strategies to mitigate such impacts in similar conflict scenarios. Through a comprehensive analysis, it highlights the urgent need for international cooperation and humanitarian aid to address the challenges posed to food security by the war, emphasizing the broader implications for global food markets and prices.

Keywords

Ukraine conflict; Food security; Propensity Score Matching (PSM); Difference-in-Differences (DiD); Agricultural disruption

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26549/jfr.v8i1.16890