Religious Events and Interpretation of Fluctuations in Stock Markets Evidence from Price Anomalies during the Arbaeen Occasion in the Iraq Stock Exchange

Mohammed Abdulameer AL-Yasi(College of Administration & Economic, University of Kerbala, P.O.Box 1125, Kerbala, Iraq)
Haider Abbas Al-Janabi(College of Administration & Economic, University of Kerbala, P.O.Box 1125, Kerbala, Iraq)
Ali Abdzaid Jebur Al-nafeai(Musayyib Technical Institute, Al-Furat Al-Awsat Technical University, Kufa, 54003, Iraq)

Abstract

Many studies and research have shown close relationships between seasonal phenomena that are related to religious beliefs and anomalies in returns and stock prices, which paved the way for exploring other anomaly days and wider time series that occur in the second month of the Hijri year, which is the month of Safar in the holy city of Karbala in Iraq, as it will represent an experimental addition to the financial scientific path and aid in providing evidence of those fluctuations and what they produce in influencing prices and returns in the stock market. The study, which conducted an analysis of stock prices in the banking sector and the hotel sector in the market for the period from 2013-2022, shows a low estimate of the price of one share compared to the volume of billion shares, as well as a gradual decline in share prices for the two sectors, the study sample, and the share prices in the month of Safar, which witnessed a remarkable fluctuation in the general average of the periods. The three are divided into ten days each period, at the beginning of the month, during the visit, and at the end of the month, with a slight decrease in the first and middle periods and then a rise again at the end of the month. This supports the general recession that affects various sectors, including the economic and financial ones, and constitutes an opportunity for the investment decision-maker to benefit from these price fluctuations.

Keywords

Behavioral finance; Price abnormalities; Stock market; Seasonal distortions; The effect of the Arbaeen Occasion

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26549/jsbe.v6i4.15901